1. Introduction
I. Conflict situations are situations of dynamic complexity. To solve the problem we will focus on understanding and representing the dynamics of a system. We will describe the interactions between social structures and review the processes in complex situations using the dynamics of the system. We will use causal loops that identify the main elements and their interconnections, focusing on feedback loops that will help explain the behavior of the system.
ii. The main purpose of this article is to express in the simplest possible way some key ideas and, therefore, to expose more clearly the logic of the reasoning and, in particular, the assumptions that are being made about the interdependence of social networks and, In addition, exploit the possibilities of the application. systems thinking and system dynamics to prevent military interventions. Furthermore, we will question the rationale for military intervention in the Western Balkans.
iii. An increasing number of international conflicts represent a major challenge for international organizations. The history of interventions by the international community shows that it is necessary to use additional analytical tools to apply different strategies for conflict resolution; systems dynamics and systems thinking.
iv. Resistance to systems thinking in conflict situations is well known: key actors in conflict situations generally resist systems thinking. The introduction of system dynamics implies overcoming these resistances.
v. Systems dynamics will help increase the awareness needed to deal with conflict in negotiation.
saw. To understand international conflicts, it is important to understand that each conflict is a two-stage process consisting of:
The pre-conflict phase: the interrelation between the actors in a group. These same actors develop and are later called opponents. This model will describe group dynamics and the process from group mobilization to group action.
The Conflict Phase: Once the groups are in action, different constraints arise, such as internal support, resources and the availability of resources, military action, and international military action.
2. The pre-conflict phase
vii. Ethnic conflicts: Max Weber affirms that ethnic groups are those human groups that maintain a subjective belief in their common ancestry … [which] it must be important for the propagation of group formation. Group differences then produce different patterns of social dynamics. If this were to escalate, then we would describe it as an ethnic conflict.
viii. We will assume that ethnic identity does not change frequently, however, over time, different importance may be assigned to different values. If the relative importance of ethnic identity is raised, this can be described as mobilization. Our model will consider technical progress that allows for greater contact between groups, a group’s position in society, and the leadership role that is involved.
ix. Whether further mobilization turns into action, it will depend on different factors, such as a social climate for change, or the leadership of ethnic entrepreneurs as a result of available resources, external influences and other high-profile triggering events, etc.
X. The action depends not only on the characterization of the initial group but also on the opposite side, this is especially true with regard to the level of democracy, being the states in transition the most prone to conflicts, as well as the level of previous violence. , which increases the probability of violent response.
xi. The key components are as follows:
– Political issues: bilateral issues in different areas, refugees, territorial and resource claims, support for separatist movements, government ideology, human rights, military participation, political crime. – Economic factors: energy, food, strategic resources, differences between the south and the north. – Ethnic relationship: racial attitude, religion, culture. – Defense capabilities: degree of militarization, weapons, mobilization potential.
xii. Ethnic, economic and political differences will lead to stronger group actions. Furthermore, democracy will negatively influence planned action by different groups. Successful actions will generally influence a group’s better self-perception. Also, ethnic differences will help each group to develop its own identity. In the event that a group considers itself a nation (for example, the Balkan wars), the borders between the nations would lead to increased government support and further mobilization of the group.
3. Pre-conflict phase: Western Balkans case study
xiii. The framework described coincides with experiences with conflicts in the former Yugoslavia. Its six republics were delimited for historical and ethnic reasons. Before 1991 Yugoslavia was under the communist regime of President Tito. In 1990 Tito died, the economic situation deteriorated, the Soviet bloc democratized, and Milosevic became party leader in Serbia. Independence then became the political objective of Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, and Macedonia.
xiv. Western Balkan Background:
– Multiple ethnic conflicts in Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia, Serbia, etc. – Political and economic instability (economies in transition) – Multiple strategies of different international organizations
4. Conflict phase
xv. It is important to track the dynamics of the conflict. Also, the coordination of different sets of players is crucial.
xvi. The model will describe internal and external influences and also their interconnections. To illustrate the theory of lateral pressure will be used in international relations. This theory defines that internal sources of conflict lead to potential external conflicts and that this also depends on the population, the level of technology and access to resources.
xvii. In our model we see that resources have a positive influence on military actions and military action has a negative influence on the amount of resources. SDM will help understand the possible and probable outcomes of conflict situations and help prevent unintended consequences by uncovering hidden dynamics that drive pre-conflict dynamics in the conflict phase setup.
xviii. In addition, the hypothesis is represented that when resources decrease while providing technological growth to the population, the result is an increase in the level of internal pressure. Sustained stress will lead to violence and further affect the underlying reasons for the conflict. In addition, the increase in technology and population influences external pressure and thus will provoke an international conflict.
xix. Then more assumptions are made. We see that an increase in technology and population will have a positive influence on GDP. GDP will then influence the military budget and this will generally lead to increased military spending and military actions. When resources are limited, international conflict and violence will lead to a smaller workforce and deterioration of technology and will result in a decline in GDP. It is evident that this system is stable regardless of the suffering of the population, and that the causes of each war are catastrophic. So we must conclude that military intervention would have a negative influence on GDP and that military action is necessary in a short-term perspective.
5. Intervention of international organizations in the Western Balkans and justification for military action
xx. Classic mechanisms of international organizations: structuring a framework in which incentives for cooperation exceed the benefits of violent actions and confrontations.
In this case, we will use Schneckener’s approach which is based on a distinction between acceptable and unacceptable policies aimed at resolving ethnic conflicts. Elimination strategies including genocide, ethnic cleansing, and forced assimilation; Regimes of control include coercive domination, co-opted government, and limited self-government. In addition to unacceptable policies, there are policies of recognition.
Disposal Control Acknowledgment
Genocide / ethnocide Ethnic cleansing Forced assimilation
Coercive domination Co-opted government Limited autonomy
National and international minority rights regimes (MRR) Integration / consociation power sharing (PS) Territorial solutions (TS) Bi- / multilateral regimes (BMR)
xxi. International organizations used the following approaches in the Western Balkans
MRR PS TS BMR Dayton – Bosnia, Kosovo UNSCR 1244, Macedonia Ohrid Agreement
xxii. International organizations have been successful in the long term because they have used recognition strategies. In terms of system dynamics, this would imply:
– a higher level of democracy – fewer political differences – fewer economic differences (financial aid)
xxiii. However, the main question remains whether they will be successful with NATO interventions in 1995 and especially in 1999. The model presented is a direct answer to this question.
6. Conclusion
xxiv. We have shown that recognition strategies can be successful in the long term. However, there is still a need for military intervention whenever civil rights are not respected and people are suffering to ensure a short-term prospect of situational well-being.