Most of the major offseason moves this summer were obviously made with an eye toward capturing the Cup. The Penguins and Devils retooled their defense in a big way and role players changed all over the league. While these deals will play a significant role in the fortunes of these NHL franchises, they barely register on the radar in terms of fantasy hockey impact. Players like Anton Volchenkov, Dan Hamhuis and Zybnek Michalek won’t get much attention on draft day. Even with some top scoring talent like Kovalchuk and Gonchar, the change of scenery probably won’t have much of an effect on his point total. In terms of fantasy impact, you have to dig a little deeper into the trades to appreciate the impact these moves will have this fall for your fantasy draft and the effect these moves will have on players’ fantasy value. Let’s take a look at the players whose stocks have gone up and down in recent days.
going up
1. Antero Niittimaki
So far this summer, the big surprise winner is Niittimaki. For the first time in his career, he is looking to start the season as the No. 1 goalie, and what better place to do that than in San Jose. Niittimaki turned in a pretty good season for the Lightning, but there’s no comparison here in terms of placement. Assuming the Sharks don’t sign a 1B option, he should expect his win total to double next season. His GAA and Save% should also improve with the Sharks.
2.Nathan Horton
Horton has been faithfully painting in Florida for years, promising Rocket Richard’s potential. He never had the talent in Miami to set him up the way he needs a scorer. Boston suffered last year with the loss of its trigger man in Phil Kessel. The match could not have been more perfect. Assuming Savard stays put (and even if he doesn’t), the Bruins have plenty of options at center who can pass the puck to Horton every night. He won’t be surprised to see Horton approach 40 goals in Boston next season if he’s healthy.
3. Jaroslav Halak
Halak escaped a dysfunctional goalie situation in Montreal to join a Blues team that should be back in the playoff hunt next season. St. Louis has a good group of defenders who helped Chris Mason put up some decent numbers last year. Halak proved last season that he’s ahead of Mason and, for the first time in his career, he’s unopposed at the net. Expect big things for Halak this year, without the soap opera with Price to distract and eat up his playing time.
4.Dan Ellis
Ellis had a brief run of glory in Nashville before being cut by Pekka Rinne last season. He thought he would see very little playing time in Nashville in the future. However, with Niittimaki moving on from Tampa, that leaves a golden opportunity for Ellis to get a second shot at stardom. He will have to battle Mike Smith for honors and may ultimately split the crease in 2010-11. Either way, he’s in a better situation today. Tampa’s defense has gotten respectable and should continue to improve this year, so Ellis will have adequate support in front of him, even if it’s a step down from the protection he saw in Nashville.
5. Pablo Martin
Martin has never been one of the top fantasy options on defense; However, going to Pittsburgh tends to change things for a player. The Penguins will continue to look to Goligoski and Letang to take over for Gonchar, but neither have shown they’re ready yet. Martin should have a few opportunities to carry the puck and hand it over to the powerful Penguin offense, which can only help his point total. Martin peaked with 37 points in his second season of 2005. He is expected to return to that level and more with Pittsburgh next year.
6. Andrew Raycroft
Raycroft is on this list simply because he goes from having no fantasy value to having some potential value this season. In Vancouver, he was relegated to monthly cameos behind Luongo. In Dallas, the only thing standing between him and a starting role is Lehtonen’s health. Those are pretty good odds for the former Calder winner who has wandered from city to city since the lockout. Consider him for a bench job on your roster, or just keep him in mind for when Lehtonen faces his next injury.
7. Dustin Byfuglian
Byfuglien’s stock could go either way with his move to Atlanta. For one thing, he faces a huge drop in surrounding talent. After peaking in the playoffs in reg time alongside the likes of Toews and Kane, Byfuglien will be on his own in Atlanta. The good news is that he is fully capable of being the man. Most of the highlights he generated this spring were powerful individual efforts that he should be able to recreate in a blue sweater. The positive side of this move for Byfuglien has to do with his role in his new club. In Chicago, he juggled line to line, and offense to defense, depending on the opponent, the needs and the lineup of the stars. In Atlanta, he can look forward to getting a regular turn at the top line as the team’s power forward. It’s a no-brainer that he should top his career-high 36 points in his debut season with the Thrashers.
8.Ray Whitney
Whitney has been a pretty consistent depth option on fantasy rosters for many years. Her numbers dropped last season, along with almost everyone else in Carolina. She now finds herself on a rising Phoenix team, but without offensive power. Whitney still has a decent production season or two to go, and should be a good fit with the Coyotes in their top line. He should bounce back to the 65-70 point range next year, which would easily make him the leading scorer in Phoenix.
going down
1. Chris Mason
The bad news for Mason came in June when Halak showed up to steal his spot in the locker room. Mason put in a solid 30-win performance last season, but found himself looking for a job when Halak came along. The good news came July 1 when he signed a contract in Atlanta, where he will fight Pavelec for the starting job. The Thrashers are building a better team, so there’s potential for fantasy value with Mason down the road; however, for the upcoming season at least, the share price has fallen here.
2.Kurtis Foster
Foster made a gutsy comeback in Tampa Bay last season, recording a career-high 42 points, positioning him as a valuable fantasy pick on the draft table. Moving to Edmonton won’t help his numbers much, as there’s no comparable talent to match what he worked with the Lightning last season. He counts him as a defensive back, but don’t count on another 40-point production.
3. Evgeny Nabokov
Just about anything at this point should be considered a downgrade to Nabokov’s fantasy value next season. After years of putting up consistent top-tier numbers, he finds himself leaving the comfort of the San Jose fold for the unknown. And most of the potential doors have been closing around you. Teams with openings for a number one goaltender have begun to fill those roles (Philadelphia, Tampa, Atlanta, St. Louis, Montreal). Pending some surprise move from a team like Washington, his value will almost certainly plummet by next year.
4. Dennis Wideman
Fantasy owners already had question marks over Wideman’s value heading into next season. Now that he’s moved from Boston to Florida, his worthiness has to be questioned even more. Wideman struggled through the first half of last season before putting together a big run down the stretch. Now that he’s in hockey purgatory in the South on a team with little chance of scoring, 30 points may be the ceiling for next year.
5. Sergei Gonchar
Leaving the Penguins for anyone has to have a negative impact on a player’s fantasy value, but don’t expect a sudden collapse of Gonchar. He put up big numbers with a below-average Capitals team before coming to Pittsburgh, and as long as he’s healthy, he should be the same consistent points producer for the Senators. He may have slipped out of the top 5 on the draft list, but don’t take him down too far or you’ll miss him.
6.Johan Hedberg
Hedberg has made a decent run as a substitute goalkeeper. Aside from his early success in Pittsburgh, he’s stuck around, filling in for injured goalies and doing a decent job. He managed to put up some good stats last season in Atlanta and became part of the fantasy picture for parts of last season. Now, despite joining a better team, he has been relegated to guest appearances behind Brodeur. His minimum fantasy value went to zero.
No change
- Olli Jokinen
It’s hard to justify all the fuss that’s been made about Jokinen over the past two years at the trade deadline. News of his return to Calgary only broke on July 1, as fans realized he is not the player he was expected to be. He didn’t catch fire in his first race in Calgary and didn’t make a significant impact in New York, so he doesn’t expect a return to the Flames to restore him to the game-playing point player he once was.
- pavel kubina
Kubina returns to Tampa Bay after a few years of absence. He’s been a pretty steady 35-40 point man over the past decade, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll fare much differently than he does when he returns to the Lightning. Age, not location, is the factor with Kubina.
- Ilya Kovalchuk
As I write this, Kovalchuk remains a free agent. Unless he packs up and heads to the KHL, it probably won’t matter much where he lands. The best teams don’t have room for him, and he’s shown he can score as a one-man show. No matter where he ends up, he’s going to be one of the best fantasy choices, so write him down in your top 10 and worry about the color of his sweater later. (As long as it’s an NHL sweater.)