1. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Offense: QB Tom Brady is without a doubt one of the best QBs in the game. With a running game almost non-existent in 2005, Brady was called upon to carry the load, and he responded with a breakout year. Brady threw for 4,110 yards and 26 TDs with a 92.3 QB rating. The Pats drafted RB Laurence Maroney as insurance for the elderly Dillon. The receiving corps is suspect, except for making up Super Bowl MVP Deion Branch. David Givens left for Tennessee, leaving the Pats without a solid #2 WR. Chad Jackson was selected to compete with Reche Caldwell. Look for more production from the TE position, where Ben Watson is poised for a big season. Daniel Graham is another viable option from the TE position. Brady distributes the ball very well and makes his teammates better. As long as he stays healthy, the offense will continue to produce.
Defense: This isn’t the same defense that led the Pats to three Super Bowl titles, but it’s also not the same unit that looked horrible at times last season. This defense is aging and lacks the depth at LB it once had. But Bill Belichick is a defensive guru who won’t let this unit slide too far, injuries notwithstanding. DE Richard Seymour leads a solid d line. Rosevelt Colvin is a quality replacement for the late Willie McGinest. Tedy Bruschi returned from a stroke to lead the LB corps. The forward seven are solid, but the secondary needs to stay healthy in 2006. Rodney Harrison is returning from injury and veteran SS Tebucky Jones and CB Eric Warfield have joined. This defense will return to elite status as long as the injury bug doesn’t visit us again.
Special teams: Kicker Adam Vinatieri left for Indianapolis, and the Pats may regret letting him test the free-agent market. They signed former Bucs kicker Martin Gramatica, but you can expect to see other kickers vying for the job. This will almost certainly come back to haunt them in close games.
Prediction: If Brady and the secondary stay healthy, New England will win the AFC East again. But better look over your shoulder because Miami is closing the gap.
2. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Offense: The arrival of QB Daunte Culpepper has fueled optimism in Miami. Joey Harrington was also hired in case Culpepper isn’t ready for the first week. If Daunte can return to his former form, this offense will be a force to be reckoned with. Ricky Williams’ suspension paves the way for RB Ronnie Brown to carry the load. But can you carry that load? He shared carries at Auburn with Cadillac Williams and shared carries here last season with Ricky Williams. WR Chris Chambers broke out for 82 catches, 1,118 yards and 11 TDs in 2005. He should easily match those numbers this season. Culpepper pitched a lot at the TE on Minny, so he hopes Randy McMichael has a productive season as well. Miami added LT LJ Shelton to bolster a promising offensive line.
Defense: Miami was second in the NFL last season and tied a franchise record with 49 sacks, led by Jason Taylor’s 12. This group is aging and lacks quality depth. Taylor wreaked havoc in 2005, moving all over the front line and sometimes falling into cover. LB Zach Thomas is great at reading plays and getting to the ball, but he’s 32 and missed a lot of time in 2005. Youngsters like LB Channing Crowder, DEs Rodrique and Manuel Wright need to step up. The secondary needs first-round pick Jason Allen to make an immediate impact. This defense still appears to be in a state of transition. Lucky for them, they have the offensively inept Bills and Jets in their division.
Special Teams: Wes Welker is a pretty productive kickoff returner. Kicker Olindo Mare connected on 83.3% of his FG attempts last season.
Prediction: Miami definitely won’t finish worse than second in this division. If the defense plays well, the Dolphins could overtake the Patriots and win the AFC East. Expect at least a wild card playoff spot for Miami.
3. BUFFALO BILLS
Offense: Buffalo’s problems start at QB. JP Losman was shaken up at best in 2005 and needs more time to develop. Kelly Holcomb is only marginally better and I can’t see Craig Nall being more than a third stringer. Perhaps an even bigger problem is the lack of talent and depth along the offensive line. This unit failed to protect the quarterback or open up running lanes for Willis McGahee last season. It’s a true testament to his ability that McGahee was able to rush for 1,247 yards with no blocks and no help from the passing game. Lee Evans is the WR for Eric Molds in Houston. Peerless Price returns to compete with Andre Davis for the #2 WR spot. Without protection and without enough weapons, this group will have great difficulties.
Defense: The Bills’ defense couldn’t stop the run or the pass last season. His yards allowed per carry went from 3.6 in 2004 to 4.5 last season. Why? Well, I’d say DT Pat Williams going to Minnesota had a lot to do with it. While the Bills gave up nearly a full yard more carry without him, the Vikings cut their yards allowed per carry from 4.6 to 4.0 with Williams anchoring the middle. Coincidence? I do not think. LB Takeo Spikes returns from an Achilles tendon injury. Buffalo needs him to get back to his game. London Fletcher is also a talent at LB. They still have solid CB Nate Clements and Terrence McGee in the secondary and draft picks Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson should help this unit improve in 2005. They’ll need some of their rookies to make an immediate impact if this defense hopes to even come close. to its 2004 productivity.
Special teams: Terrence McGee led the NFL in 2005 with a kickoff return average of 30.2 yards. Kicker Rian Lindell nailed 29 of his 35 FG attempts.
Prediction: Too many holes in too many places and too many question marks on both sides of the ball. Buffalo is earmarked for a top ten pick in the 2007 draft.
4. PLANES FROM NEW YORK
Offense: Two shoulder surgeries have left everyone wondering whether or not Chad Pennington is the man for the Jets. They brought in Patrick Ramsey from the Redskins as insurance, but his ability is also questionable. They might be inclined to throw rookie Kellen Clemens into the fire. That would be a huge mistake, in my opinion, behind this offensive line Swiss cheese. Curtis Martin’s streak of 1,000-yard seasons came to an end last season thanks to injuries. At 33, Martin will see his role reduced to stay healthy longer. Cedric Houston, Derrick Blaylock and rookie Leon Washington will see carries. WRs Laveranues Coles and Justin McCareins are big-play guys, but the quarterback situation prevents them from producing. Either Doug Jolley or Chris Baker will have to step up at TE. Drafting D’Brickashaw Ferguson was a big step in repairing the offensive line. The 2006 o-line will have a totally new look, which means it will take a while to freeze.
Defense: The Jets are transitioning to a 3-4 defensive scheme. New coach Eric Mangini used the 3-4 in New England and hopes it works here. However, changes like this usually take some time to pay off. I don’t think the Jets have the right pieces to this puzzle. They lack a mammoth nose tackle to gobble up blockers and free up LBs to make plays. DT Dewayne Robertson is the closest thing they have, but he suffers from chronic knee ailments. Race D will fight once again. LB Jonathan Vilma has a lot of talent, but the 3-4 requires him to take blocks and he’s too small for that role. Ty Law was released and picked up by the Chiefs, leaving the secondary with questions as well. Too many holes and too many changes equals another long season for the Jets D.
Special teams: Justin Miller led the NFL in kickoff return yards with 1,577. He also had a TD. Rookie kicker Mike Nugent made 22 of 28 FG attempts, including 17 of his last 19 attempts.
Prediction: Like the Bills, the Jets appear headed for a top-10 pick in the 2007 draft.
FINAL THOUGHTS: This division is clearly divided down the middle. The Patriots and Dolphins will battle for the division crown, while the Bills and Jets will battle to stay out of the basement. The Dolphins could very well win the division this year. Both New England and Miami should see playoff action.